......................Elected...DNC...Total
Clinton..........107.......111......218
Obama...........78........46........124
No Endorse...135.......244.....379
Total..............320.......401....721
Two things become quickly evident looking at this. First, DNC delegates overall are the majority of the superdelegates. Second, the majority of Clinton's 94 superdelegate lead comes from the unelected delegates (55 vs. 39).
Adding in the pledged delegates, here are delegate totals:
....................Elected Only....Including DNC
Clinton.........1041...............1152
Obama.........1098...............1144
(DNC is used as shorthand for the unelected superdelegates.)
This is cause for concern. Because it kind of retards the idea that's going around that the superdelegates should not thwart the will of the voters. Much of that idea seems based on the assumption that, as elected officials, superdelegates have to respond the the wishes of their constituents. But most superdelegates are not elected officials, but instead are former office-holders and shadowy party figures. Of course, most of the former office-holders, guys like Jimmy Carter and Al Gore, will probably vote for whoever has a lead in pledged delegates, in the interest of preserving the party. But the shadowy figures might be expected to say 'fuck the voters,' and vote based on some combination of money and loyalty (loyalty related to a tit-for-tat of personal secrets they would not like revealed). Does anyone doubt that the shadowy figures make up Clinton's core group of superdelegates? Obviously these numbers show that her lead in superdelegates comes largely from unelected party officials.
For more up-to-date superdelegate numbers (with less breakdown), today's story in the Times can be assumed to be fairly accurate.
On a related front, this post (from 2/6), Scalia to Determine Democratic Nominee, is pretty funny (either because of or in spite of how plausible it is).
Basically, Obama had better sweep all the remaining states so that I don't end up having a civic duty to join a pitchfork-wielding mob in Denver in late August.


1 comments:
being from Maine, and living on a farm, i have a few pitchforks to spare. i'll be right next to you in late August if things don't turn out fairly.
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