I'm not sure why all news and commentary seems to laugh off most non-New Hampshire small states (and non-states) in the Democratic primary. I know that most of these places aren't going to figure hugely (or in some cases at all) in the general election, but everything now is about horse race politics, and this is where the election is being won.
Hawaii is mentioned as an afterthought to Wisconsin, and not just because its results weren't in until 12:30 a.m. Eastern. However it was nearly as important as Wisconsin. Obama won Hawaii 12 delegates to 4, for 8 points. He won Wisconsin 40 to 28, for 12 points. But had Wisconsin been as close as predicted, it could have easily been something like 36 to 32, making Hawaii a more important victory.
Maine was seen as a very decisive victory for Obama. There he won 15 to 9 for 6 points. However Idaho was mostly laughed at, although he won it 15 to 3, for 12 points--making it twice as important as Maine.
The U.S. Virgin Islands, which Obama won 3-0, was really laughed at. However, by my count, he picked up a lead there that was 2 delegates larger than his lead from Iowa, which he won 16 to 15.
St. Patrick's Day Burgers
2 years ago
2 comments:
i'm offended when you say ". . . making it [Idaho] twice as important as Maine."
mathematically, which should be the most important factor, you're right, but people look at benchmarks and key states that influence other states' voting patterns. of course that's controlled by what the media thinks is important and then the candidates have to adjust their strategy based on what the media says is important, otherwise they appear to be neglecting the states who are being told they're important. i know you know this, but i just wanted to write it out and defend my home state.
I know you need to defend Maine, but I just don't think the media's right to think a state that's full of people who use the ellipsis properly is a good bellwether for the nation.
This campaign has been over-demographied. Let's just count delegates.
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